gambler's fallacy

gambler's fallacy
Also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy. Either (i) the mistake of supposing that results on a system such as a roulette table will continue to display some pattern they have recently been showing (e.g. reds are ‘hot’), or (ii) the converse mistake of supposing that an opposite pattern must be becoming due (by ‘the law of averages’). In fact a fair gambling system is one on which the probability of some outcome remains exactly the same on each occasion: a roulette wheel has no memory. It should be noticed that if a system is not known to be like this there may be no fallacy. If we are betting on the weather, or a horse, it may be quite reasonable to take a sequence of rainy days, or a sequence of wins, as increasing the chance of another.

Philosophy dictionary. . 2011.

Игры ⚽ Нужен реферат?

Look at other dictionaries:

  • Gambler's fallacy — The Gambler s fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy (because its most famous example happened in a Monte Carlo Casino in 1913)[1], and also referred to as the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that if deviations from… …   Wikipedia

  • Gambler's Fallacy — When an individual erroneously believes that the onset of a certain random event is less likely to happen following an event or a series of events. This line of thinking is incorrect because past events do not change the probability that certain… …   Investment dictionary

  • Inverse gambler's fallacy — The inverse gambler s fallacy is a term coined by philosopher Ian Hacking to refer to a formal fallacy of Bayesian inference which is similar to the better known gambler s fallacy. It is the fallacy of concluding, on the basis of an unlikely… …   Wikipedia

  • Gambler's conceit — is defined by economist David Ewing as the mistaken belief that one will be able to stop performing a risky action while one continues to succeed or win at it. This belief frequently arises during games of chance, such as casino games, or stock… …   Wikipedia

  • Fallacy — In logic and rhetoric, a fallacy is usually incorrect argumentation in reasoning resulting in a misconception or presumption. By accident or design, fallacies may exploit emotional triggers in the listener or interlocutor (appeal to emotion), or… …   Wikipedia

  • Fallacy of composition — The fallacy of composition arises when one infers that something is true of the whole from the fact that it is true of some part of the whole (or even of every proper part). For example: This fragment of metal cannot be broken with a hammer,… …   Wikipedia

  • Fallacy of division — A fallacy of division occurs when one reasons logically that something true of a thing must also be true of all or some of its parts. An example: A Boeing 747 can fly unaided across the ocean. A Boeing 747 has jet engines. Therefore, one of its… …   Wikipedia

  • Fallacy of quoting out of context — The practice of quoting out of context, sometimes referred to as contextomy or quote mining , is a logical fallacy and a type of false attribution in which a passage is removed from its surrounding matter in such a way as to distort its intended… …   Wikipedia

  • Gambler's ruin — The basic meaning of gambler s ruin is a gambler s loss of the last of his bank of gambling money and consequent inability to continue gambling. In probability theory, the term sometimes refers to the fact that a gambler will almost certainly go… …   Wikipedia

  • Fallacy of the single cause — The fallacy of the single cause, also known as causal oversimplification, is a fallacy of questionable cause that occurs when it is assumed that there is a single, simple cause of an outcome when in reality it may have been caused by a number of… …   Wikipedia

Share the article and excerpts

Direct link
Do a right-click on the link above
and select “Copy Link”